On December 18th, 2009, James Cameron’s “Avatar” opened. The Oscar-winning adventure about the tall and noisy blue people on Pandora became the highest-grossing domestic release of all-time and single-handedly forced every studio to either make or convert every upcoming big-budget action movie in or to 3D. This December 18th, “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” will begin its quest to top “Avatar”‘s box office records.
There’s no doubt diehard fans of the legendary franchise will come-out in droves (and in costumes, if theater chains will still allow it) to see if this seventh installment lives-up to the years of hype. Hopefully, “The Force Awakens” is an exciting introduction into Disney and LucasFilm’s revamping of the series that will include two more regular “Episodes” as well as several spin-offs currently in development.
Here’s the bad news: “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” is going to over-power every movie theater in its path and become every movie studio’s worst holiday nightmare. It comes down to basic math: Cinemas only have a certain number of screens. The demand for “The Force Awakens” will be so high opening weekend that theater owners across the country will be forced to devote the vast majority of their screens to Hans Solo and company, squeezing the rest of the current releases onto either a very limited number of remaining screens or pushing them out altogether. I wouldn’t be surprised if “The Hunger Games: Mockingjay – Part 2” (opening Nov. 20) is gone from the majority of multiplexes on Dec. 17.
Five days after “The Force Awakens” opens, the Christmas blockbusters begin rolling-out, starting with “Alvin and the Chipmunks: Chipwrecked” on Wednesday Dec. 23. “The Big Short”, an all-star financial drama from Paramount, will also be expanding that day. Christmas Day itself brings the action remake “Point Break” from WB (which I honestly believe will get pushed to 2016) and the Paramount comedy “Daddy’s Home” starring Will Ferrell and Mark Wahlberg.
And let’s not forget that Santa will be leaving other presents in the form of Awards Season hopefuls “Concussion” (the NFL drama with Will Smith) and legitimate Best Picture, Director and Actress contender “Joy”, starring Jennifer Lawrence, Robert De Niro and Bradley Cooper. Audiences are going to want to spend their movie gift cards on these films. However, it’s likely they’ll only be available for limited showings on limited screens, so sell-outs will be a problem. Those predicting how these movies will do at the box office would be smart to keep their expectations low.
Finally there’s this: “The Force Awakens” comes-out right in the middle of nomination season, with every studio large and small trying to get their movies seen by critics and audiences to drum-up buzz and sway voters. It’s going to be much tougher for publicists and marketing departments to do their jobs when practically every website and magazine will be devoted to endless “Star Wars” news, analysis and box office breakdowns.
To sum it up: I’ve got a bad feeling about this.