Some analysts are predicting that “Frozen II” could earn $100 million in its opening weekend. I don’t think that will occur, simply because it’s opening before the long Thanksgiving holiday weekend. While the “Frozen” name was such a powerhouse in 2013, 6 years later, Disney is faced with a slightly uphill battle for their animated sequel. Millions will certainly flock to see “Frozen II” once, but here are 4 reasons why this second chapter won’t live-up to the original at the box office:
I haven’t seen “Frozen II” yet, but from the trailers, commercials and early reactions of those who have seen the film, it seems to be much darker in look and tone than the first installment. Yes, Olaf is back, and there are several new songs. But if the themes and situations are much more mature, kids aren’t going to be begging their parents to see it again and again. Repeat viewing greatly benefited the first film, which was in the Top 10 for an astounding 16 weeks in a row. That is not going to happen a second time.
TWICE MAY NOT BE NICE
The reviews from the first “Frozen” were SO strong. Those who thought the Disney animated musical genre died with “The Lion King” needed to experience “Frozen” for themselves and see what all the hype was about. If “Frozen II” is good but not nearly as impactful as the first one, then don’t expect anyone of any age to be anxious to return to the theater.
Unlike last time, when “Frozen” cruised through the holidays and well into early 2014 with very few alternatives for families, that’s not the case here. Several big end-of-year releases are targeting families, including Disney’s juggernaut “Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker” (Dec. 20) and their animated “Spies in Disguise” (through the FOX label), opening Christmas Day.
Kids thoroughly enjoyed the 2017 blockbuster “Jumanji” reboot (even though it was PG-13), and the Motion Picture Association has also given its new sequel “The Next Level” (out Dec. 13) a PG-13 mark. PG ratings have been rewarded to the animated “Playmobil: The Movie” (Dec. 6), “Cats” (Dec. 20), “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood” (Nov. 22) and “Little Women” (Dec. 25). However, it’s unclear how many young ones will actually see any of the latter three.
Disney’s own streaming service debuts this Tuesday, Nov. 12. Families will be shelling-out money right away to watch Mouse House classics and new content, like the sweet “Lady and the Tramp” remake. Are parents really going to want to pay all that movie theater money AGAIN – or just watch something on Disney+ instead over the holidays? (Besides “Frozen II” will be on Disney+ sometime next summer.)