UPDATE: “Brave” opens with a strong $66.7M for the weekend. This marks the 5th highest-grossing open for a Pixar film behind “Toy Story 3” ($110.3M), “The Incredibles” ($70.5M), “Finding Nemo” ($70.3M) and “Up” ($68.1M). “Brave” barely beat “Cars 2″‘s open from last year ($66.1M). We’ll see if that changes once the actuals come-out.
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It’s always one of the most eagerly-anticipated movie events of the year: the release of a Pixar film. The studio’s latest, “Brave”, comes out this Friday and the promotion and publicity for the film has been heavy. But will that result in a huge box office?
The average opening for a Pixar movie is $61.5M. Many have done much better. “Brave” has a few things going for it and a few things going against it in its effort to become one of the studio’s most successful films.
First of all it’s rated PG (for scary action and rude humor), only the 3rd Pixar movie to get this rating. Will that keep parents of very young children from taking them? Also, it’s the first Pixar story with a female main character. While this will obviously be exciting and attractive to little girls, history has shown that it’s little boys who determine if animated movies geared toward young kids are a big success. Disney announced a few years ago, after the failure of “The Princess and the Frog”, that they were getting away from “princess” films, because boys didn’t want to see them. And remember the switch in the marketing campaign of “Enchanted” – away from Rapunzel and more toward the Prince and the horse and the action? “Brave” is being promoted as a story of “Girl Power”. It will be interesting to see if boys want to see a girl character acting like them.
In addition, Pixar’s previous release, “Cars 2”, was not a critical or box office success. And this is the studio’s first original story since 2009’s “Up”.
On the plus side is Pixar’s amazing track record. And the fact that their movies usually appeal to every age group and demographic. “Brave” could be a financial success even without the young boy audience. If it’s a great film people will want to see it. Plus, the “Girl Power” thing is hot right now. Merida may be seen as a young Katniss Everdeen (“Hunger Games”) by moviegoers. “Brave” is also being released in 2D and 3D, so the extra ticket prices will help its box office total.
My prediction for opening weekend: $62.5M. Not spectacular but certainly solid. And if the reviews are great and “Brave” is a Pixar classic you can add another $5-$10M onto that.