The Academy Awards nominations are a week away, on Tuesday February 8th. Studios with films that received theatrical releases are likely gearing-up to put them on as many screens as possible so moviegoers can see them while the nominations are on their mind. It’s a trend as old as time (though we’re not going back to 1929).
Last year, during the first weekend after the Oscar nominations were announced (on a Monday), “Minari” added 497 theaters, “Promising Young Woman” added 334 theaters, “Judas and the Black Messiah” went up 174 and “TENET” expanded to 20 more cinemas in North America. As a result, all four films had an increase in their weekend gross. But last year, most people weren’t going to the movies and the majority of theaters across the continent were closed, so these four films only earned a max of a few hundred thousand dollars on this particular weekend.
In the past, films had much more success. And it looks like that could be the case again this year, depending on which movies are nominated, which studios want to re-release or expand them, and if they’ll be able to secure screens amidst new, non-Oscar contending films such as “Jackass Forever”, “Moonfall”, “Marry Me”, “Blacklight” and “Death on the Nile”.
In 2007, the Oscar noms were on a Tuesday. The next weekend “The Queen” earned $4 million and “The Departed” was re-released in additional 1,300 locations, making $3.4 million. In 2008, “There Will Be Blood” added about 500 theaters, with a $5 million gross. “Michael Clayton” was brought back to nearly 1,100 theaters, to a $2.2M weekend.
In 2009, the Oscar nominations were announced on a Thursday. Studios had to plan ahead of time if they thought their films would do big beginning the next day. It worked for Fox Searchlight’s “Slumdog Millionaire”, which increased 829 theaters and made $10.7 million.
The studio also found success in 2010 (after Oscar noms on a Tuesday) with “Crazy Heart”, which shot up 580 locations and earned $3.6M. 2011 Best Picture winner “The King’s Speech” added 877 cinemas three days after the noms and earned an impressive $11.1M. In 2012, the big winner of the next weekend was Searchlight’s “The Descendants”, adding 1,441 theaters and $6.4M.
A day after the 2013 nominations (on a Thursday), Sony’s “Zero Dark Thirty” was set to expand nationwide anyway. It won the weekend, with $24.4M. “Lincoln”, “Silver Linings Playbook” and “Argo” also saw boosts. In 2014, the champ in this category was “August: Osage County”, jumping up nearly 1,200 locations and making $7.4M. In 2015, “American Sniper” had a similar… well, actually much greater, success story to “ZD30”. It was set to expand nationwide a day after the Oscar noms anyway. With Bradley Cooper on the Best Actor ballot and the film up for Best Picture, “Sniper” stunned the world with a $90 million weekend. In 2016, both “Brooklyn” and “Spotlight” saw increases, but both had weekends under $2 million.
Back to a Tuesday for the Oscar noms in 2017. Lionsgate had the foresight to expand “La La Land” right after they were announced. The musical (which tied the all-time Oscar nominations record, with 14) added nearly 1,300 theaters and had a weekend gross of $12.2 million. “The Shape of Water” rose 1,001 theaters right after the 2018 noms and made $5.9M. Universal’s Best Picture winner “Green Book” added 1,518 locations just after the 2019 noms, earning $5.5M.
And in 2020, after the Oscar nominations were announced on a Monday, “Parasite”, “Jojo Rabbit” and “Ford v. Ferrari” all added theaters and had weekend gross gains, but they were all between $1M and $2M.
So, which films could take advantage of this strategy this year? “Nightmare Alley”, “Dune”, “House of Gucci” and “No Time to Die” have already had re-releases, but why not more chances at more money? MGM could keep expanding “Licorice Pizza” (and they’re still holding onto “Cyrano” until Feb. 25). “Belfast” (Focus) and “West Side Story” (Disney) seem logical to do this.
I would also add WB’s “King Richard”, but it will actually be on DVD on the 8th. “Drive My Car” (Janus), “Flee” (NEON), “Jockey” & “Parallel Mothers” (Sony Classics) could score big on ballots and therefore see expansions. And maybe… just maybe… Sony will use a Best Picture nomination for “Spider-Man: No Way Home” to try to get to (and far past) $750 million.
(Source: Box Office Mojo)