Much like that famous horse race held at Churchill Downs the first Saturday in May, my domestic box office predictions for the major May releases has become a rite of Spring. 2013’s lineup, which included “Iron Man 3”, “Star Trek Into Darkness” and “Fast & Furious 6” grossed a combined $1.4 billion. Last May, blockbusters “The Amazing Spider-Man 2”, “Godzilla”, “X-Men: Days of Future Past” and “Maleficent” performed well, but the overall total fell to $1.2 billion. 2015’s eight films are looking to surpass that figure and kick-off what could be a (much-needed) record-breaking summer:
May 1 – “Avengers: Age of Ultron” (PG-13) What a way to start the Summer Movie Season! Iron Man, Thor, Captain America, The Hulk, Black Widow and Hawkeye are back and ready to take down the evil Ultron (“The Blacklist” Emmy winner James Spader joins the star-studded ensemble). I’m not sure this sequel looks as good as the 2012 original, but early reviews say otherwise. The build-up has been gigantic and if “Ultron” is as good as the first “Avengers”, fans will go again and again. Opening Weekend Prediction: $220M; Total Gross Prediction: $590M
May 8 – “Hot Pursuit” (PG-13) Oscar winner Reese Witherspoon and “Modern Family”‘s Sofia Vergara star in this road-trip comedy. The trailers are nothing short of terrible, and even though it’s the only film opening on post-“Avengers” weekend, finding an audience will be tough. OWP: $30M; TGP: $80M
May 15 – “Mad Max: Fury Road” (R) Director George Miller returns for another “lovely day”. Tom Hardy takes-over the franchise from Mel Gibson, with Charlize Theron at Hardy’s side. Insane, R-rated action will be appealing to some, but fanboys may wait for more appetizing options to come. OWP: $45M; TGP: $120M
“Pitch Perfect 2” (PG-13) It’s the sequel to 2012’s somewhat successful female comedy about a cappella singing groups. The popularity of stars Anna Kendrick and Rebel Wilson has grown since the original, but don’t expect a monster hit. OWP: $30M; TGP: $90M
May 22 – “Poltergeist” (PG-13) A horror film with a familiar title. Weekend #1 will be huge; Weekends 2-5 will be scary. OWP: $40M; TGP: $75M
“Tomorrowland” (PG) “The Incredibles” and “Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol” director Brad Bird re-teams with Disney for this family sci-fi adventure starring fellow two-time Oscar winner George Clooney. Britt Robertson (“The Longest Ride”), Hugh Laurie and Tim McGraw round-out the cast. The plot has been kept fairly secret and the buzz is growing. This has the chance to be the critical and box office darling of the summer. OWP: $65M; TGP: $200M
May 29 – “Aloha” (PG-13) What a cast! – Bradley Cooper, Emma Stone, Rachel McAdams, Bill Murray, John Krasinski, Danny McBride and Alec Baldwin! It’s “Jerry Maguire” writer/director Cameron Crowe’s latest romantic dramedy. He cannot afford a bomb. OWP: $35M; TGP: $110M
“San Andreas” (PG-13) The Rock is ready to save the world…again. Fresh-off of “Furious 7”, Dwayne Johnson saddles-up with his “Race to Witch Mountain” co-star Carla Gugino and Paul Giamatti for a disaster film that doesn’t look like it’ll be a disaster at all. OWP: $60M; TGP: $165M
The LCJ Official Total Box Office Gross Prediction: $1.43 billion