This time last year, I wrote a blog predicting box office totals for each of the major May films. The closest result (I was only off by $4M) was “Star Trek Into Darkness”, which grossed just under $229 million. Combined, the eight films made over $1.4 billion domestically. But that total could actually be surpassed this May. Time to tackle the month again and see how the numbers add up. Here are my picks for May’s 10 wide releases:
May 2 – “The Amazing Spider-Man 2” (PG-13) Spidey’s back with a new set of foes to face. I’m expecting big things, both from the film itself and from ticket sales. If the film that kicks-off the all-important Summer Movie Season disappoints, it could mean we’re in for a rough 4 months. Don’t think that will happen. Opening Weekend Prediction: $125M; Total Gross Prediction: $290M
May 9 – “Neighbors” (R) I’ve already seen this raunchy Seth Rogen/Zac Efron comedy, and it’s very uneven. Nonetheless, those who’ve enjoyed Rogen’s films in the past (including last Summer’s “This is the End”) should happily shell-out $$ for this one. OWP: $35M; TGP: $90M
“Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return” (PG) Advertised as the sequel to “The Wizard of Oz”, this will be the first big animated film in a month. However, it comes from a very small studio (Clarius Entertainment) and looks it. Still, “The Nut Job”, which opened in January, was sub-par and still grossed $65M. “Oz” may follow the same road. OWP: $20M; TGP: $60M
“Moms’ Night Out” (PG) This family comedy starring Sean Astin, Patricia Heaton and Trace Adkins looks downright terrible. Going up against “Spider-Man” and “Oz”, this doesn’t have a chance. OWP: $10M; TGP: $25M
May 16 – “Godzilla” (PG-13) Marks an eagerly anticipated return of the classic monster to the silver screen. Godzilla is, by definition, both a popcorn and Drive-In movie. OWP: $75M; TGP: $180M
“Million Dollar Arm” (PG) Jon Hamm (“Mad Men”) stars in this Disney baseball drama about a sports agent who hoping to turn some Cricket players into MLB pitchers. Kevin Costner’s NFL “Draft Day” hasn’t connected with audiences, and I’m not confident this will either. OWP: $15M; TGP: $45M
May 23 – “X-Men: Days of Future Past” (PG-13) While “The Wolverine” and “X-Men: First Class” were disappointments when compared to the original three “X-Men” movies, this latest in the series combines both sets of characters into one super, superhero movie. Diehard fans have been waiting for this origin backstory for a long time, and it looks like it should deliver. OWP: $120M; TGP: $275M
“Blended” (PG-13) It appears that Adam Sandler has a chance to hit a new, all-time low with this “comedy”, co-starring Drew Barrymore. But there are a ton of Sandler fans out there, though having “X-Men” as direct competition could be a fatal blow. OWP: $30M; TGP: $95M
May 30 – “Maleficent” (PG) Angelina Jolie stars as the title villain in this Disney prequel to “Sleeping Beauty”. In the right hands and with the right script this could be the perfect match. But since the film’s rated PG, how dark and scary/violent can it be? OWP: $60M; TGP: $155M
“A Million Ways to Die in the West” (R) Seth MacFarlane follows-up “Ted” with this wacky, adult, comedy Western. The trailers are downright awful. How many millions will be made? Not nearly as many ($218M) as the pairing of Mark Wahlberg and his Teddy Bear. OWP: $30M; TGP: $85M
If my projections are close we’ll fall just a little short of last year, with a $1.3 billion total. It’ll be very interesting to see how it all plays out.