The last-minute decision by the Weinstein Co. not to give “Silver Linings Playbook” it’s wide release next week as expected may not be as surprising as it seems.
The Bradley Cooper-Jennifer Lawrence dramedy was supposed to open in about 2000 theaters on Nov. 21, and the buzz from great film festival reaction and early awards season success is strong. And there’s the current TV ad campaign, including spots on Monday Night Football. So why decide to hold the film back now?
The studio says it’s following it’s own playbook with the gradual release (starting with only 400 theaters week one, maybe 800 the second week and then wide week three or four). But it seems like they’re taking a page from recent campaigns such as “The Descendants” last year and Weinstein’s own “The King’s Speech” in 2010. Both were rolled out slowly during the holiday season, building momentium with strong reviews and buzz that carried into awards show time and eventual box office success.
But there is a downside to this strategy. First of all, theaters around the country are now scrambling to fill their screens for the big Thanksgiving weekend that were supposed to be showing “Silver Linings Playbook”. But, more importantly, movie fans in these cities will now have to wait to see what is clearly one of the best films of the year. Instead of going after the box office money now, the studio is gambling that these same people – and many, many more – will pay to see the film a few weeks from now, as the word-of-mouth grows and award nominations start to pile up.
And they’re probably right. But I think “Silver Linings” would be a financial success either way. When a movie is good people will see it. Consider “Argo”, which opened wide week one as the first, serious film of this awards season. It started slowly (only $20 million) but has held strong at the box office thanks to great reviews and strong WOM, and is now on it’s way to $100M (and multiple awards consideration).