This weekend’s “The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug” is expected to be one of the biggest films of the year. But, considering we’re in the early stages of the most crowded holiday season ever, will it be able to surpass the original’s $303M take at the box office?
“The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey” opened to $85 million on the very same weekend last year. Keep in mind, “Lord of the Rings” fans didn’t know what to expect from Peter Jackson. The result was a very lengthy journey indeed (almost three hours). Plus, the HFR (high-frame-rate), with even higher ticket prices than 3D, made it a must-see.
“Smaug” is ten minutes shorter than “Journey” and is again in HFR, but I don’t think the attraction will be quite as strong. Yes, “Smaug” will absolutely win the weekend with at least $75 million. Obviously diehards are going to go, and even those who didn’t love the first installment but think this second chapter looks better (I’m in that group) will be giving it a shot this weekend.
The interesting other new option at box office is “Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas”. Perry movies, particularly those starring the crazy old lady, traditionally open quite well and then die very quickly.
“Madea” may steal some of “The Hobbit”‘s thunder (grabbing some patrons who get sold-out of “Smaug”), as well as bring in Perry’s strong African-American audience ($30M target open).
“The Desolation of Smaug” should have some legs before the bombardment of Christmas Day releases, and end up with an estimated $260-$270 million total, landing right in between WB’s other two 2013 blockbusters, “Man of Steel” and “Gravity”.