Going into last Summer there was a clear Mega-Weekend Box Office battle: Memorial Day Weekend, which featured the heavyweight showdown of “Fast & Furious 6” vs. “The Hangover: Part III” (with the animated adventure “Epic” as the wannabe contender). “Fast 6” went-on to crush “Hangover 3” and all competitors, making nearly $120 million over the four day period.
It’s a little more difficult to pick this year’s spotlight Summer match-up – the two films opening on the same day and in the same class when it comes to box office potential. But I think I found it. The date: Friday, June the 13th. In this corner – DreamWorks’ animated sequel, “How to Train Your Dragon 2”. And in this corner – Sony’s highly anticipated comedy sequel, “22 Jump Street”. And if you’re assuming “Dragon” is a lock to win, this breakdown will show that the race could actually be a lot closer than you might think.
2010’s “How to Train Your Dragon” opened to a solid $44 million, and finished with an outstanding $218 million, showing it had repeat business with families. “Dragon 2” has a lot in its favor: It’ll be the first animated release in over a month (the previous being “Legends of Oz” on May 9), has a familiar title, is following an excellent original installment and is building solid buzz thanks to a great trailer. However, because kids in many parts of the country don’t get out of school until the following week, a relatively slow opening followed by a big second week is quite possible.
Two years ago “21 Jump Street” proved to be a critical and box office hit, with a $36 million open and $138 million domestic total. The carry-over momentum will help “22” tremendously. Also in its favor: Jonah Hill and Channing Tatum are even bigger draws now than they were when the original was released. Plus, the college student/young adult audience is always looking for a funny, smart and raunchy over-the-top comedy, and this one could deliver.
It will all come down to last-minute marketing and reviews, and while it won’t be a runaway, “Dragon 2” is my pick to win the weekend with somewhere around $70 million (which will be a welcome blessing for struggling a DreamWorks), while “22 Jump Street” should take-in close to $60 million. Is there a chance that these two could flip those numbers? Absolutely. But one thing’s for sure, since Hill stars in both, he’s guaranteed to be the biggest winner of them all.