Universal has moved-up the release date of DreamWorks Animation’s “How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World” one week. The third (and reportedly final) installment in this blockbuster and critically acclaimed franchise will now open on March 1. Yes, ‘Dragon 3’ will take wing two days before the Academy Awards.
Typically, films released on Oscar weekend aren’t contenders for the next year’s Oscar ceremony. For example, this year’s new films that weekend were “Red Sparrow”, one of the worst movies of 2018, and “Death Wish”. They opened to $16.9M and $13M, respectively (finishing behind “Black Panther”, #1 for a straight third week). Neither will be nominees in any categories this February.
On Oscar weekend 2016 it was “Eddie the Eagle” ($6.1M). 2015 saw “McFarland, USA” ($11M) and “The Duff” ($10.8M). Dwayne Johnson’s “Snitch” led the new releases in 2013 with just $13.2M. The Farrelly Brothers comedy “Hall Pass” was the 2011 Oscar weekend champ with only $13.5M. These aren’t the kinds of movies that vie for Oscar gold.
However, this theory has two major exceptions: 2010’s “Alice in Wonderland” opened to $116.1 million on Oscar weekend. And it earned both Costume Design and Art Direction Oscars the following year. And 2017’s “Get Out” opened to $33.4 million and won the Best Original Screenplay Academy Award 12 months later.
If Universal and DreamWorks keep their Feb. 22 start date for “Dragon 3”, this means it will open just two weeks after WB’s “The LEGO Movie 2: The Second Part” and only three weeks before Paramount’s animated “Wonder Park”.
It also means we could have the biggest open for an Oscar weekend release since “Alice”. 2010’s “How to Train Your Dragon” (distributed by Paramount) made $43.7 million its first weekend, while the 2014 sequel “How to Train Your Dragon 2” (from Fox) grossed $49.5 million in its first three days. $50 million for “The Hidden World” is not out of the question.
The first two “Dragon” movies also scored Best Animated Feature Oscar nominations, with “Dragon 2” winning the category at the Golden Globes. It will take a lot for “Dragon 3” to sustain momentum for an entire year (especially with “LEGO 2”, “Frozen 2” and “Toy Story 4” are also coming in 2019), but you can’t count it out.
Let’s not get ahead of ourselves with NEXT awards season quite yet – when we’re barely into this one.