Disney is releasing a big movie over Memorial Day Weekend for the fifth consecutive year. There’s a lot riding on Guy Ritchie’s live-action take on “Aladdin”, which stars Will Smith as the Genie. The Mouse House’s history with Memorial Day is an unusual one, dominated by disappointments and… Johnny Depp. Here’s a look, courtesy of Box Office Mojo:
2007
“Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End”
PG-13
2 hours, 48 minutes
4-Day Weekend: $139.8 million
45.2% of Total
2010
“Prince of Persia: The Sands of Time”
PG-13
1 hour, 55 minutes
4-Day Weekend: $37.8 million
41.7% of Total
2015
“Tomorrowland”?
PG
2 hours, 10 minutes
4-Day Weekend: $42.7 million
45.7% of Total
2016
“Alice Through the Looking Glass”
PG
1 hour, 52 minutes
4-Day Weekend: $33.5 million
43.5% of Total
2017
“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales”
PG-13
2 hours, 9 minutes
4-Day Weekend: $78.5 million
45.5% of Total
2018
“Solo: A Star Wars Story”
PG-13
2 hours, 15 minutes
4-Day Weekend: $103 million
48.2% of Total
Will Smith, the former King of 4th of July, also recently dabbled in Memorial Day Weekend fare with “Men in Black 3” in 2012. The PG-13 rated sci-fi action comedy (at an hour and 46 minutes) earned $69.3 million in its 4-Day Weekend – 38.7% of its total. Shorter movie than all the Disney films mentioned – and a smaller percentage of the overall total than all those Disney movies.
So here’s what I’m thinking. “Aladdin” (with a 2-hour, 8-minute runtime) is projected to earn $100 million over its first four days. I think that’s slightly high. But whatever “Aladdin” opens to, it will be approx. 45% of its total gross. So if it’s $100 million, that means its total will be approx. $222 million.
But I’m sure Disney wishes this will be higher. The budget has not yet been unveiled, but considering the reported scope of the movie (and the fact that Richie’s last film, 2017’s “King Arthur: Legend of the Sword” cost $175 million), I’d say “Aladdin” will need to be a monster in order to make at least a small profit.