The Summer Movie Season will kick back into high gear next weekend with the highly-anticipated release of “Man of Steel” – the Superman film millions have been waiting for. While director Zach Snyder’s previous films (2010’s animated “Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole” and the 2011 flop “Sucker Punch”) underperformed, “Man of Steel” has so much buzz surrounding it that it should be one of the Top 5 moneymakers of the year.
Some analists are predicting an $85-$90 million open. Even with all the advance screenings that Walmart is doing the night before its release (one of which I will be attending), I don’t see how “Man of Steel” won’t make $100 or even closer to $120 million it’s first weekend.
The following weekend, however, is when things get interesting. There will be two more BIG releases: the animated Pixar prequel “Monsters University” and Brad Pitt’s Zombie Apocalypse thriller “World War Z”. The who wins that battle?
You might think the easy answer is “MU”, since Pixar has had 13 straight #1 opens. And it’s the family film and the first animated film since the kids are out of school. A $62M+ box office (Pixar’s average) should be enough to scare-off the competition – right?
BUT: What if “Man of Steel” opens to, say, $120-$140 million – which I don’t think is impossible. Big action films tend to drop 50-60% in their second weekend, so “Man of Steel” could rake-in $60-$70 million. Plus, while “MU” has the family advantage, both Disney and Paramount (the studio behind “World War Z”) are going after the college kid demographic. Disney has been pitching that group hard because of the “MU” storyline and the fact that these students grew up watching “Monsters Inc.” 10 years ago). “World War Z” will naturally grab a hugh chunk of that audience because of Pitt and the fact that it’s a movie about zombies taking over the world.
Pixar thought they were taking a huge chance last year with “Brave” (first female lead character) and it ended-up as 2012’s highest-grossing animated film. “Monsters University” has to be considered one of the studio’s riskiest releases yet.
So who will be crowned the champ on Sunday June 23rd? A lot will depend on how “Man of Steel” does next week, because as of right now, it’s too close to call.