“Barbie”, which has earned nearly $640 million domestically, and “Oppenheimer”, which has grossed close to $330 million in North America, are two of the five nominees for the Best Ensemble SAG Award. And there’s a good chance one of them will win. (However, I wouldn’t count out “American Fiction”. “Killers of the Flower Moon” seems less likely with Leonardo DiCaprio not being on the Best Actor ballot. And “The Color Purple” didn’t receive a Best Picture Oscar nomination.)
The 30th Annual SAG Awards isn’t until Feb. 24, but the voting has been going on since Jan. 17 and will run all the way through Feb. 23 at Noon PT. This is to accommodate up to 160,000 members submitting ballots.
In recent years, the highest-grossing movie in a specific category has often resulted in a win, either for the entire ensemble or an individual performance. The more people who see a movie, the more likely of a chance that film may win. That’s not a fact, but check this out:
“Inglourious Basterds” beat the other four nominees, including eventual Best Picture Oscar winner “The Hurt Locker”, in the Cast in a Motion Picture category at the 2010 show. Two years later, “The Help” cast won over “The Artist”. In 2014, “American Hustle” won — and that movie made more money than “12 Years a Slave”, “August: Osage County”, “Lee Daniels’ The Butler” and “Dallas Buyers Club”.
Three years later, the “Hidden Figures” cast won. That film earned significantly more at the box office than “Captain Fantastic”, “Fences”, “Manchester by the Sea” and “Moonlight”. In 2019, $700 million “Black Panther” was the SAG Ensemble victor, over “BlacKkKlansman”, “Bohemian Rhapsody”, “Crazy Rich Asians” and “A Star Is Born”. And last year, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” was that category’s winner, over “Babylon”, “The Banshees of Inisherin”, “The Fabelmans” and “Women Talking”, which barely made any noise at the box office.
How about Ian McKellen winning Best Supporting Actor for his first time as Gandalf in 2001’s “The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring”? Johnny Depp won Best Actor for his first film as Captain Jack Sparrow in 2003’s “Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl”. In the Best Actress category, Viola Davis was victorious for 2011’s “The Help”. And Emily Blunt won Best Supporting Actress for 2018’s “A Quiet Place”. All four of these performances didn’t earn these actors gold statues at the Oscars. (In fact, Blunt wasn’t even nominated.) And all four of these performances were featured in their category’s highest-grossing movies.
“Oppenheimer” is the biggest movie nominated for Best Actor (Cillian Murphy) and Supporting Actress (Emily Blunt). “Barbie” is the biggest movie nominated for Best Actress (Margot Robbie), Supporting Actor (Ryan Gosling), Cast in a Motion Picture and also Stunt Ensemble. Could the Robbie and Greta Gerwig Oscar snubs have such an impact that “Barbie” dominates the SAG Awards? And will Murphy and Blunt beat “The Holdovers” nominees Paul Giamatti and Da’Vine Joy Randolph, partially because “Oppenheimer”‘s box office is 18-times that of “The Holdovers”? We’ll find out in a month!