UPDATE: “The Vow” wins the weekend with $41.7M. “Safe House” comes in at a close second with $39.3M. “Journey 2” opens in third with $27.6M (Dwayne Johnson’s highest family film opening). “Star Wars 3D” comes in fourth with $23M (a little lower than I expected).
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Four new movies (well three are actually new, but you know what I mean) are in theaters this weekend and could set box office records for being the first “BIG” weekend of 2012:
“The Vow” starring Rachel McAdams and Channing Tatum is the ideal romantic drama for Valentine’s Day weekend. It’s opening in just under 3,000 theaters and could sell-out many of those venues.
“Safe House” is Denzel Washington’s first film since 2010’s “Unstoppable”. He teams-up with Ryan Reynolds in this R-rated action/thriller. Washington is probably more of the draw, especially since Reynolds’ last two movies (“Green Lantern” and “The Change-Up”) were box office disappointments.
“Journey 2: The Mysterious Island” is the sequel to a film that came out three and a half years ago and has a new star. That might hurt “Journey 2″‘s performance, but with Family Film go-to-guy Dwayne Johnson as the star (and this being the first true “family” film of 2012), kids will probably be anxious for something new to see. It’s on the most screens (3,470 – many in 3D and IMAX 3D) of any of the new releases.
And then there’s “Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace 3D”. The question is: Do diehards go just for the experience, or do they think “Why do I want to see this disappointing chapter again, and pay 3D prices for it?” The average cost of admission has gone up $2.75 from 1999 to 2012 (according to Box Office Mojo).
ASs for the saga of next weekend’s “This Means War”: Fox was originally planning to release the Reese Witherspoon romantic action/comedy on Friday the 17th, then changed to Tuesday the 14th (trying to get a Valentine’s Day crowd), and just this week moved back to the 17th (but will do special screenings on Tuesday). No doubt that Fox realized that couples would rather go to “The Vow” than their own film.
Opening Weekend Box Office Predictions:
1. The Vow – $42M
2. Star Wars 3D – $29.5M (in its original release, $64.8M for the 3-Day weekend/$105.7 for the first 5 Days)
3. Safe House – $26M
4. Journey 2 – $22M