So, what have we learned so far this awards season?
THERE ARE SOME LOCKS
At this point, Christopher Nolan is on his way to finally earning Academy gold in the Best Director category. One of Nolan’s “Oppenheimer” stars, Robert Downey, Jr., will continue to earn Best Supporting Actor prizes. And Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”) will keep receiving well-deserved Best Supporting Actress honors.
THE BATTLES IN THE LEADING ROLE CATEGORIES
It’s Gladstone v. Stone for the Oscar. Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”) earned the Best Actress in a Drama Golden Globe, while Emma Stone (“Poor Things”) won her second Best Actress in a Comedy or Musical Globe. After four previous nominations for her work in “Birdman”, “La La Land”, “Battle of the Sexes” and “The Favourite”, Stone received her first individual Critics Choice Award in the Best Actress category. On stage, she was shocked the award didn’t go to someone else. The first person she named: Gladstone. Stone lost the Best Actress CCA to Natalie Portman (“Jackie”) in 2017, but ended-up winning the SAG, BAFTA and Oscar. Could those voters chose someone else — maybe Gladstone — instead?
The Paul Giamatti / Cillian Murphy Best Actor showdown could go all the way to Oscar Night, March 10th. They split Golden Globe honors, and then Giamatti was named the Critics’ Choice. Giamatti previously won a SAG Award — for Best Supporting Actor — for 2005’s “Cinderella Man”. He lost the Academy Award to “Syriana”‘s George Clooney. SAG may honor Giamatti again. I could see Giamatti or Murphy earning the BAFTA. If Giamatti wins both SAG and BAFTA, I think he’ll take the Oscar. But Murphy in either case will make it a coin flip. Speaking of which…
ANIMATED FEATURE IS A TOSS-UP
Hayao Miyazaki’s “The Boy and the Heron” won the Golden Globe. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” won at Critics Choice. The first “Spider-Verse” earned the Oscar. Miyazaki’s previous movie, “The Wind Rises”, lost to “Frozen”. And making things even more interesting… Netflix’s “Nimona” leads the 2024 Annie Awards nominations.
BEST ORIGINAL (“BARBIE”) SONG
Remember when “Enchanted” scored three Best Original Song Oscar nominations, but they all lost to “Falling Slowly” from “Once”? Well there’s a good chance “Barbie” gets three tunes on the Academy Awards ballot. And any one of them could win. Maybe it’s “Dance the Night”. Maybe it’s GG winner “What Was I Made For?” Or maybe it’s “I’m Just Ken”.
AS FOR BEST PICTURE
Golden Globe Best Drama and Critics Choice Best Picture and Best Ensemble winner “Oppenheimer” is the Oscar frontrunner. I think it will win the BAFTA as well. But if it loses the SAG Best Ensemble honor to “Barbie”, it will be the “Barbenheimer” battle heading into the Academy Awards that the industry is probably hoping for. “Barbenheimer” represented 14 Critics Choice Awards wins out of 19 possible categories (neither “Barbie” nor “Oppenheimer” was eligible for Best Animated Feature and Best Foreign-Language Film).