The 2023 BAFTAs made a few things clear but, for the most part, shook-up races heading into the SAG Awards and the Academy Awards.
“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” is close to a lock to win Best Animated Feature at the Oscars. It’s expected to first win at this Saturday’s Annie Awards. If it does, I’d say it’s the biggest lock of Oscar Night.
BAFTA awarded Best Director to Edward Berger for most-nominated film “All Quiet on the Western Front”. Berger is not on the Oscar ballot. Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, have the slight edge for the Academy Awards, having won the Directors Guild of America and Critics Choice Award for “Everything Everywhere All at Once”. Steven Spielberg earned the Golden Globe for “The Fabelmans”.
Outstanding British Film went to “The Banshees of Inisherin”, which won the Best Comedy Golden Globe but was shut-out of the Critics Choice Awards. Best Film recipient is “All Quiet on the Western Front”, which is nominated for the Best Picture Academy Award… and its chances of winning have increased quite a bit.
Supporting Actor and Supporting Actress went to stars from “The Banshees of Inisherin”, Barry Keoghan and Kerry Condon. Condon was my upset pick over Critics Choice and Golden Globe winner Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”). I thought Ke Huy Quan (“EEAAO”) would continue his streak, and if there was an upset it would be to Keoghan’s “Banshees” co-star Brendan Gleeson. Next Sunday, SAG could choose Bassett and Quan… or a “Banshees” actor could earn at least one of those honors as well.
In a competitive Lead Actor race featuring Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”), Bill Nighy (“Living”) and Colin Farrell (“Banshees”), Austin Butler reigned victorious at BAFTA for his portrayal of Elvis Presley. Butler also won the Actor in a Drama Globe. Farrell earned the Actor in a Comedy Globe. Fraser was the Critics Choice recipient. If Butler wins SAG, he’ll definitely be the Oscar favorite. If it’s Fraser or Farrell, the Oscar choice will be a toss-up. Sadly, I think Nighy no longer has a path to winning the Academy Award.
Cate Blanchett (“TAR”) continues her Best Actress run. Even though she’s now won the Critics Choice and BAFTA Awards, as well as the Actress in a Drama Golden Globe, she’s not a lock for the Oscar. Michelle Yeoh (“EEAAO”) won the Actress in a Comedy Golden Globe, and I can picture her winning SAG and even winning the Oscar. If Blanchett wins SAG, she shouldn’t be considered an automatic victor for her third Academy Award until that envelope opens on March 12th.