UPDATE: “Hotel Transylvania” drops to 2nd place (behind “Taken 2”) at the weekend box office, with $26.3M (I was only off by $300k). “Frankenweenie” opened to a lesser than expected $11.5M. “Corpse Bride”‘s wide-release opening weekend gross in 2005 was just over $19 million, so “Frankenweenie”‘s gross is quite lower, especially considering that “Corpse” wasn’t in 3D or IMAX 3D. However, stop-motion animated films usually open between $10M and $15M. Hopefully the strong word of mouth and Oscar buzz will make people who missed out this weekend go see it next weekend.
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Sony Pictures Animation’s “Hotel Transylvania” has dominated the box office since it opened last Friday. But another animated movie is opening this weekend and it could steal some of its thunder: Disney/Tim Burton’s “Frankenweenie”. You might think it’s unusual that two major studios would release two major animated films back-to-back, but it has been done before:
2004
“The Incredibles” opened to $70 million on November 5th. “The Polar Express” came-out 5 days later, and grossed a 5-day total of $30 million – #2 for the weekend, behind “Incredibles”. On the 19th, “The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie” was released and took in $32 million and was crowned top animated film of the weekend (barely losing the overall top spot to “National Treasure”).
2006
On July 21st, the Oscar-nominated “Monster House” came in at #2 with $22 million. The next weekend, WB’s “The Ant Bully” bombed, making just $8 million (behind “Monster”). One week later, Nick’s “Barnyard: The Original Party Animals” was released and grossed $16 million to come in second behind the Will Ferrell comedy “Talladega Nights”.
2009
“9” was released appropriately on 9/9/09. But because of the film’s PG-13 rating, it only made $15 million in its first five days. On the 18th, Sony’s “Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs” tore-up the box office with $30 million, and another $25 million the next weekend.
A couple months later, “Planet 51” (starring Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson) was released by Sony partner Tri-Star. The film immediatly struggled by going up against “New Moon” and “The Blind Side”, only managing $12 million. Five days later, the Oscar nominee “Fantastic Mr. Fox” opened in wide release. but making just $9.5 million over the long Thanksgiving weekend.
2010
Lionsgate’s “Alpha and Omega” (featuring the voice of the late Dennis Hopper) grossed just over $9 million on the weekend of September 17. “Legend of the Guardians: The Owls of Ga’Hoole” opened the next week to $16 million, losing to “Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps”.
2011
“Happy Feet Two” went up against “Breaking Dawn Part 1”, and only grossed 1/3 of the original’s open this past November. Thanksgiving weekend brought three new family films: “The Muppets”, “Hugo” and the underrated “Arthur Christmas”. Because of the season’s huge competitors, “Arthur” only made $16 million in the first five days, but only losing to “Happy Feet Two” by $2 million.
WHAT HISTORY HAS TAUGHT US:
1) A lot of animated films are released over the Thanksgiving weekend (or on a Wednesday), and they never do as well as the previous week’s animated films.
2) Triple-headers are tough on studios, that’s why there hasn’t been one since 2006.
3) The first of the two films doesn’t always open the strongest; PG-13 animated films don’t have mass appeal (aside from “The Simpsons Movie”).
WEEKEND PREDICTIONS ARE BASED ON:
1) “Hotel Transylvania” and “Frankenweenie” are both similar in genre: animated horror comedy.
2) Stop-motion animated films don’t open huge: This year’s “The Pirates!” – only $11M; “ParaNorman” only $14M. But “Corpse Bride” (Burton’s last stop-motion film) made $20M in 2005.
3) Even if “Transylvania” dropped a incredible 50% in its second weekend, it would still make over $20M.
4) “Frankenweenie” is opening in 300+ fewer theaters than “Transylvania”; both films are in 3D.
PREDICTION:
1. “Hotel Transylvania” – $26M
2. “Frankenweenie” – $15M