This Wednesday, “Arthur Christmas”, “Hugo” and “The Muppets” open nationwide. This might be one of the tightest races of the year for box office supremacy considering that all three are going after the same holiday family audience. Here’s a break-down of the race, and thoughts on which has the best chance to win:
“Arthur Christmas” PG 1hr. 37min. – an Animated comedy about Santa Claus and his family. Previous Sony Pictures Animation movies have opened with an average of $26.8 million. The film has fantastic early reviews, but parents might decide to wait a week or two closer to Christmas to bring the kids to it. Opens in 3,300 theaters. Columbia.
“Hugo” PG 2hr. 7min – a Live-Action adventure based on an award-winning book. This is famed director Martin Scorcesee’s first family film, that alone could draw in both adults and kids. But opening in only 1,200 theaters will hurt the film’s chances for big success. Awards buzz and solid early reviews should help. Paramount.
“The Muppets” PG 1hr. 45min – the big-screen return of the iconic characters will likely draw in diehard fans of the old shows and movies and as well as a whole new generation of kids. Plus, with Disney behind it and Jason Segal, Amy Adams and Kermit the Frog as stars, this is expected to be a blockbuster. And the marketing for this film has been huge. Opens in 3,300 theaters.
And you have to factor in weekend #2 of “Twilight”. Here are my predictions:
1. “The Muppets” $42M ($60M 5-Day)
2. “Twilight” $38M
3. “Arthur Christmas” $31.5M ($46M 5-Day)
4. “Hugo” $7.8M ($10.2M 5-Day)
Considering the positive buzz for all three new films, Wednesday, Nov. 23, 2011 could go down as the best single day for family films in movie history. Hard to imagine, with practically everyone off from school and work the following day (Thanksgiving) that most people won’t be going to see one of these three that day. And it looks like those of us who do will all have something to be thankful for.