Each May for the past four years, I’ve been predicting how each of the big releases will do at the box office. These have been my results for the combined total of the films:
My Prediction: $1.59 billion
Actual Result: $1.42 billion
My Prediction: $1.30 billion
Actual Result: $1.17 billion
My Prediction: $1.43 billion
Actual Result: $1.15 billion
My Prediction: $1.40 billion
Actual Result: $900 million
Clearly, I’ve overestimated on all four occasions, with last year being the most drastic difference. I’m at it again for this year’s crop of May releases. Let’s break them down:
May 5 – “GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 2” (PG-13) Marvel Studios’ sequel to their 2014 smash hit has been getting great early reviews. Writer/director James Gunn just confirmed he’s coming back for “Guardians Vol. 3”. The film, like most of the Marvel movies recently, is being released overseas at the end of April. Moviegoers here in the U.S. can’t wait to see the continuing adventures of Star-Lord, Gamora, Drax, Rocket and (now Baby) Groot.
Opening Weekend Prediction: $160 million
Total Gross Prediction: $425 million
May 12 – “KING ARTHUR: LEGEND OF THE SWORD” (PG-13) – Director Guy Ritchie follows-up 2015’s “The Man from U.N.C.L.E.” (WB just announced a sequel is being written) and his “Sherlock Holmes” films with the latest in a long line of takes on the “King Arthur” story. Do audiences really want another one of these? Not quite sure.
Opening Weekend Prediction: $27 million
Total Gross Prediction: $73 million
“LOWRIDERS” (PG-13) This low-budget family relationship drama starring Damien Bichir and Eva Longoria comes from producer James Blum’s BH Tilt studio, which is emerging a standalone distribution studio with this and “Sleight” (Apr. 28).
Opening Weekend Prediction: $11 million
Total Gross Prediction: $35 million
“SNATCHED” (Not Yet Rated) – Amy Schumer and Goldie Hawn star in this over-the-top comedy about a mother-daughter duo who get kidnapped during their trip to South America. It’s being released over Mother’s Day weekend, which could help. But comedy fans also have “Baywatch” less than two weeks later, so this may lose momentum quickly.
Opening Weekend Prediction: $34 million
Total Gross Prediction: $96 million
May 19 – “ALIEN: COVENANT” (Not Yet Rated) – Ridley Scott returns to the franchise that started it all for him. But there’s no Sigourney Weaver. Still, sci-fi fans came out to “Prometheus” in 2012 – most not even knowing if it really was an “Alien” prequel.
Opening Weekend Prediction: $64 million
Total Gross Prediction: $152 million
“DIARY OF A WIMPY KID: THE LONG HAUL” (PG) – I thought the “Wimpy Kid” film series was over in 2012 following three painfully unfunny installments. But along comes this reboot with an all-new cast in the main roles, including Tom Everett Scott and Alicia Silverstone as Greg Heffley’s parents. There isn’t a G or PG-rated movie out between “Born in China” (Apr. 21) and “Captain Underpants” (June 2), so this fourth “Wimpy Kid” might actually top the other three.
Opening Weekend Prediction: $19 million
Total Gross Prediction: $57 million
“EVERYTHING EVERYTHING” (PG-13) Another tearjerker romance based on a teen novel rom Warner Bros., the studio that brought us both “If I Stay” (2014) and last year’s excellent”Me Before You”.
Opening Weekend Prediction: $15 million
Total Gross Prediction: $51 million
May 25 – “BAYWATCH” (R) – Dwayne Johnson and Zac Efron team-up for the latest R-rated comedy version of a TV drama. We just had one of those, “CHIPS”, and it bombed. Paramount hopes “Baywatch” can be the next “21 Jump Street”.
Opening Weekend Prediction (May 26-28 Only): $55 million
Total Gross Prediction: $163 million
May 26 – “PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MEN TELL NO TALES” (PG-13) It’s the fifth installment in the swashbuckling franchise that began 14 years ago. It’s also been six years since the disappointing fourth chapter, “On Stranger Tides”. But the buzz out of the CinemaCon screening for “Pirates 5” was very positive, with many saying this is the best since the ’03 original.
Opening Weekend Prediction: $97 million
Total Gross Prediction: $265 million
My Prediction for all of these movies combined: $1.317 billion. Let’s hope I don’t overestimate…again.