For the past few years, I have predicted the box office results for every May wide release kicking-off the Summer Movie Season. In 2013, I estimated a record-breaking $1.59 billion combined total of all the May films, led by “Iron Man 3”. The result was still a record, but a little lower at $1.42B. My 2014 prediction was $1.3B. “Maleficent” ended-up topping the month (which no one, including yours truly, expected) and May movies grossed $1.17B.
Last year I predicted “Avengers: Age of Ultron” would make $590 million, with all the May films totaling $1.43B. But the Marvel superhero sequel underwhelmed, only making $460M, which contributed to a May total of just $1.15 billion.
This year’s lineup is strong, with the potential to beat 2013. The recent and rapid increase in ticket prices will definitely be a factor as well:
May 6 – “Captain America: Civil War” (PG-13) Not only is it the third installment in this series, but it’s basically “Avengers 3” as Cap suits-up to battle Iron Man, with many supporting superheroes (including Black Widow, Hawkeye, the Falcon, Ant-Man, Black Panther, and the new Spider-Man – played by Tom Holland) picking sides. This is the longest Marvel Studios effort at just under 2:30. “Batman v. Superman”‘s performance was hurt by all the negative reviews. If critics embrace “Cap 3”, it could benefit greatly from repeat business. Opening Weekend Prediction: $165M; Total Gross Prediction: $390M
May 13 – “The Darkness” (PG-13) This horror film from low-budget studio High Top Releasing does have a big name in Kevin Bacon. But there’s hasn’t been much promotion and the buzz online seems low, so it likely won’t make much of a impact on the May cume. OWP: $15M; TGP: $30M
“Money Monster” (R) The most appealing title for older audiences this month is directed by Jodie Foster and stars George Clooney as a financial TV show host who is held at gunpoint live on air. Julia Roberts plays the show’s producer. It looks great and could score big with critics, but it’s not designed to be a summer box office “monster”. OWP: $25M; TGP: $70M
May 20 – “The Angry Birds Movie” (PG) This is destined to be a blockbuster. It’ll be the first animated film release since “Ratchet & Clank” (opening Apr. 29) and first high-profile family film since “The Jungle Book” (which came-out on Apr. 15). It’s also the only fully-animated film until “Finding Dory” (June 17). And it’s a name that so many kids and parents are familiar with because it’s based on the phenomenon app game series about those bickering birds and green pigs. Add an all-star voice cast and TONS of promotion from Sony. Opening Weekend Prediction: $85M; Total Gross Prediction: $230M
“Neighbors 2: Sorority Rising” (R) Universal is hoping for big bucks with this sequel to their highest-grossing release of 2014. Seth Rogen, Rose Byrne and Zac Efron are all back – this time dealing with an out-of-control sorority moving-in next door. The stakes seem higher, and therefore, the pranks look bigger and wilder. OWP: $60M; TGP: $170M
“The Nice Guys” (R) Russell Crowe and Ryan Gosling play a hitman and private eye in 1970s Los Angeles. The trailers are spinning this as a quirky crime comedy. As much as ladies love seeing these men on the big screen, I don’t see this having mass box office appeal. OWP: $25M; TGP: $65M
May 27 – “Alice Through the Looking Glass” (PG) We’re returning to Wonderland for the sequel to Tim Burton’s 2010 live-action version of Disney’s 1951 animated classic. That film banked on being the first major 3D release following “Avatar”. Burton isn’t the director this time, but Johnny Depp, Anne Hathaway, Mia Wasikowska and Helena Bonham Carter are all back, joined by Sacha Baron Cohen. OWP: $70M; TGP: $185M
“X-Men: Apocalypse” (PG-13) No Wolverine this time, as director Bryan Singer takes the “First Class” and “Days of Future Past” youthful clan along for a third ride. OWP: $105M; TGP: $260M
My 2016 May Movies Total Box Office Prediction: $1.4 Billion. If a few of these titles over-perform, we will get a record-breaking May, but I think it’ll fall just a bit short.