It’s time for PART 2 of my 2023 Oscars Predictions. Here’s who I think will win… and who might surprise… when it comes to some of the biggest categories — Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Adapted Screenplay and… first up… Animated Feature:
Best Animated Feature
Will Win: “Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio”
The Upset Pick: “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish”
“Pinocchio” has been dominating this category this awards season. Animation admirers want to honor one of the most respected guys in the biz, GDT (even though he just won the Best Director Oscar five years ago for “The Shape of Water”). “Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” won several Annie Awards (along with “Pinocchio”), but “Puss in Boots” also picked-up a couple — and with its impressive theatrical box office performance for the past three months, combined with glowing reviews from critics and praise from the animation community, it *could* pull off one of the biggest Oscar surprises in a long time. But it probably won’t.
Best Original Screenplay
Will Win: “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
The Upset Pick: “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Martin McDonagh won the Golden Globe and BAFTA for “Banshees”. He didn’t win the Oscar five years ago, losing to “Get Out”’s Jordan Peele (who also won at Critics Choice). I think CCA, Independent Spirit and WGA Awards winners The Daniels will also receive the Oscar.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Will Win: “Women Talking”
The Upset Pick: “All Quiet on the Western Front”
It’s been a similar split this awards season, with Sarah Polley earning the Critics Choice and WGA Awards and Edward Berger, Lesley Paterson and Ian Stokell receiving the BAFTA. Polley seems to have the momentum right now.
Best Supporting Actor
Will Win: Ke Huy Quan, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
The Upset Pick: Barry Keoghan, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
With the exception of the BAFTA, which went to Keoghan, Quan has pretty much swept this category all season. I don’t see how he loses, but there’s a *slight* chance it’s Keoghan.
Best Supporting Actress
Will Win: Angela Bassett, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”
The Upset Pick: Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
Until the surprise SAG victory for Curtis, my “Upset Pick” choice would’ve been BAFTA winner Kerry Condon (“Banshees”). And if “Career Achievement”-esque votes split for Bassett and Curtis, then maybe Condon does pull off the upset. But I still believe Globe and CCA winner Angela Bassett earns the Academy Award for her powerful work in “BP: WF”, 29 years after her other nomination for “What’s Love Got to Do With It”. If it’s Curtis… it’s a pure Career Achievement honor.
Best Actor
Will Win: Austin Butler, “Elvis”
The Upset Pick: Brendan Fraser, “The Whale”
The REAL Upset Pick: Colin Farrell, “The Banshees of Inisherin”
Butler won the Drama Globe and the BAFTA. Fraser won the Critics Choice and the SAG. It’s truly a coin flip, but I think many Academy voters (especially older ones) will find it irresistible to avoid selecting the guy who played Elvis Presley. And just look at past acting Oscar wins for singers and musicians, from Sissy Spacek as Loretta Lynn and Jamie Foxx as Ray Charles to Reese Witherspoon as June Carter and Marion Cotillard as Edith Piaf — to Jeff Bridges as (fictional) Bad Blake, Rami Malek as Freddie Mercury and Renee Zellweger as Judy Garland. But I could easily see Fraser up on stage instead of Butler. AND if the Best Actor votes split between the heavy favorites, like they did 20 years ago, with Jack Nicholson (“About Schmidt”) and Daniel Day-Lewis (“Gangs of New York”) losing to Adrien Brody (“The Pianist”)… then Globe Comedy winner Farrell (“Banshees”) will pull-off a MAJOR upset. Or maybe it’s even Bill Nighy (“Living”) or Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”)!
Best Actress
Will Win: Michelle Yeoh, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
The Upset Pick: Cate Blanchett, “TAR”
Until the SAG Awards, it was the other way around. Yeoh won the Comedy Globe, with Blanchett earning the Drama Globe, Critics Choice Award and BAFTA. Yeoh’s SAG and Independent Spirit Awards victories over Blanchett give Yeoh the momentum to prevent Blanchett from receiving her third career Oscar (and second consecutive after a nine-year span).
Best Director
Will Win: The Daniels, “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
The Upset Pick: Steven Spielberg, “The Fabelmans”
Spielberg did win the Globe, but The Daniels are so beloved by the industry for their movie that they seem pretty close to locks.
Best Picture
Will Win: “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
The Upset Picks: “All Quiet on the Western Front”, “The Banshees of Inisherin” or “Top Gun: Maverick”
The six other nominees don’t have a legitimate chance at winning, including early in the season favorite “The Fabelmans”. “EEAAO” looks to be the true darling of the year and will likely be No. 1 choices for most younger Academy voters. As for the older voters, they could lean towards “All Quiet” or “Banshees”, with “Top Gun” as a wild card. It depends on if the preferential ballot really shakes things up, or if “EEAAO” can solidify itself as the victor no matter what. And I think it will.