It’s time for PART 1 of my 2023 Oscars Predictions. I’m saving some of the biggest categories (Picture, Director, Animated Feature, the Screenplays and the four acting ones) until PART 2. For now, here are my thoughts on the 14 other categories:
Best Cinematography
Will Win: “All Quiet on the Western Front”
The Upset Pick: “Elvis”
I don’t see “TAR” taking this one. This category has the only nominations for “Bardo” (I don’t understand why it’s not also in Best Picture, Director, International Feature and Original Screenplay) and “Empire of Light”. And with “Top Gun: Maverick” shockingly not on this list, “All Quiet” seems to be the right choice.
Best Costume Design
Will Win: “Elvis”
The Upset Pick: Most of the Others
“Elvis” seems to have the momentum here, but I wouldn’t be surprised if The Academy is swayed by the flashy “Babylon” costumes or the sophisticated superhero looks in “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”. If “Everything Everywhere All at Once” has quite the run (like at SAG), maybe it even wins here. “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” has lovely costumes, but it would be a stunning upset.
Best Production Design
Will Win: “Babylon”
The Upset Pick: “Elvis”… I guess
“Babylon” only has three nominations — all in technical categories. It may walk away with wins in all three cases, or at least two of them. (More to come…)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Will Win: “Elvis”
The Upset Pick: “The Whale”
Like others in the past, including “The Iron Lady” and last year’s “The Eyes of Tammy Faye”, I think the winner in this category will match the winner in an acting category (hint hint…), but I’m not 100% sure yet. Picking “Elvis” here feels right, but I won’t be shocked if it’s “The Whale”. “All Quiet” is a wild card. “The Batman” and “Black Panther” will not be victorious here.
Best Film Editing
Will Win: “Everything Everywhere All at Once”
The Upset Pick: It doesn’t feel like any other movie has a chance.
“Top Gun: Maverick” and “TAR” had some great editing. “Elvis”… not so much. I’ve been back and forth this entire awards season with what I like and dislike about “The Banshees of Inisherin”. “EEAAO” won the BAFTA and Critics Choice Award in this category. Close to a lock.
Best Sound
Will Win: “Top Gun: Maverick”
The Upset Pick: “All Quiet on the Western Front”
“TGM” has to win SOMETHING no matter what. I mean, it doesn’t HAVE to… but it should. This is where it will get some love, unless The Academy goes gaga for “All Quiet” instead.
Best Visual Effects
Will Win: “Avatar: The Way of Water”
The Upset Pick: This is also a lock.
It’s “Avatar” — of course it’s going to win.
Best Original Score
Will Win: “Babylon”
The Upset Pick: “All Quiet on the Western Front”
Justin Hurwitz won two Oscars for “La La Land”. Even though he won the Globe and Critics Choice Awards for the “First Man” score, he wasn’t even Oscar nominated. The Academy will make up for that mistake and reward him for his music here.
Best Original Song
Will Win: “Naatu Naatu” from “RRR”
The Upset Pick: “Applause” from “Tell It Like a Woman”
“RRR” has an overwhelming amount of love this awards season. But so does Diane Warren, fresh-off her honorary Oscar win with another competitive nomination. This could legitimately go either way. I don’t anticipate the “EEAAO” song team, Lady Gaga or Rihanna accepting a trophy this time.
Best International Feature
Will Win: “All Quiet on the Western Front”
The Upset Pick: “Argentina, 1985” — but “All Quiet” is close to a lock.
Best Documentary Feature
Will Win: “Navalny”
The Upset Pick: “Fire of Love”
This is one I’ve gone back and forth on. “Navalny” has been picking-up wins lately, but “Fire of Love” has Disney/NatGeo behind it and was honored at the Critics Choice Documentary Awards. NEON’s “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” is a wild card. “All That Breathes” and “A House Made of Splinters” are farther back in the pack.
Best Documentary Short Film
Will Win: “The Elephant Whisperers”
The Upset Pick: “The Martha Mitchell Effect”
Best Live-Action Short Film
Will Win: “An Irish Goodbye”
The Upset Pick: “Le Pupille”
Best Animated Short Film
Will Win: “The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and The Horse”
The Upset Pick: Seriously, any of the other four.
All five excellent shorts have a legitimate chance of winning — the powerful “The Flying Sailor”, the visually stunning Annie winner “Ice Merchants”, the effective “My Year of Dicks” and the hilarious, Student Academy Award winner “An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It”.