Here are My Predictions for this Sunday’s 24th Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards:
Best Stunt Ensemble
SHOULD WIN: “Wonder Woman”
WILL WIN: “Wonder Woman”
COULD WIN: Any other movie in the category
There’s been a lot of love and support for “Wonder Woman”, which earned Best Action Movie honors at the Critics Choice Awards. Fellow Stunt Ensemble nominees “Dunkirk” and “Baby Driver” tied for Best Editing at Critics Choice, and “Logan” and “War for the Planet of the Apes” have also had huge followings since their releases. “Wonder Woman” is the frontrunner, but this is anyone’s game.
Best Supporting Actor
SHOULD WIN: Steve Carell, “Battle of the Sexes”
WILL WIN: Sam Rockwell, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
COULD WIN: Willem Dafoe, “The Florida Project”
In a unique year for this category, my favorite performance of the batch is considered the biggest nomination surprise. But Carell has no chance of winning. Neither do Woody Harrelson (“Three Billboards) or Richard Jenkins (“The Shape of Water”). Rockwell is on a hot streak, though Dafoe could easily come-in for the win here and make things interesting heading into the Oscars.
Best Supporting Actress
SHOULD WIN: Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
WILL WIN: Allison Janney, “I, Tonya”
COULD WIN: Laurie Metcalf, “Lady Bird”
Janney seems to have the momentum, though all the “Lady Bird” supporters could vote strongly for Metcalf. It’d be a stunner if Mary J. Blige (“Mudbound”), Hong Chau (“Downsizing”) or Holly Hunter (“The Big Sick”) took this one.
SHOULD WIN: Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
WILL WIN: Gary Oldman, “Darkest Hour”
COULD WIN: Anyone but James Franco
Oldman is the favorite, but Timothee Chalamet (“Call Me by Your Name”) and Daniel Kaluuya (“Get Out”) are still in this race. Denzel Washington won the SAG last year for “Fences”, so I don’t see him winning a second in a row for “Roman J. Israel, Esq.”, but it’s not impossible. Following a disastrous few weeks, “The Disaster Artist”‘s Franco has no chance.
SHOULD WIN: Margot Robbie, “I, Tonya”
WILL WIN: Frances McDormand, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
COULD WIN: Sally Hawkins or Saoirse Ronan
I’m glad Judi Dench got nominated for “Victoria & Abdul”, but she’s the biggest longshot on the board. McDormand has gone 2 for 2, but a SAG win isn’t a slam dunk. Robbie won the Best Actress in a Comedy Critics Choice Award. Ronan took the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Comedy. And many people loved Hawkins’ performance in “The Shape of Water”. Votes could split.
SHOULD WIN: “Mudbound”
WILL WIN: “Get Out”
COULD WIN: “Lady Bird” or “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”
“The Big Sick” is a worthy nominee, though I don’t see it winning here. “Three Billboards” might be considered the favorite since it also won the Critics Choice Award in this category. But I’m betting big on “Get Out”, which will solidify its place in the Best Picture Oscar race. “Lady Bird” may take it, too – and “Mudbound” would be a HUGE win for Netflix.